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                                                                                                                                                                          澳门轮盘网站:国金证券:6月底7月初A股或具备一定的参与条件

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年06月10日 01:18 来源:上苑家居装修有限公司

                                                                                                                                                                          (原标题:国金证券:6月底7月初A股或具备一定的参与条件)

                                                                                                                                                                          国金证券认为,6月份A股处于“圆弧底”的阶段,市场由单一模式的博高“β”步入了深根细作的赚“α”阶段,我们对二季度A股市场持偏谨慎观点,我们相对看好三季度A股行情。

                                                                                                                                                                          当前考虑到:①两国贸易磋商再起波折,短期内并未看到“握手言和,实质性达成协议”的迹象;②6月份A股潜在解禁规模较大,为年内第二大的潜在解禁规模的月份,从统计数据来看,“端午节”后A股行情往往具有“六绝魔咒”特征;③金融供给侧改革有条不紊推进,“宽信用”货币政策并未实质性转向。由此预计A股市场风险偏好依旧受到制约。对于下一阶段何时参与A股市场反弹?“A股整体估值足够便宜”是参与下一轮反弹的最主要考虑的因素,从时间窗口来看,偏向于6月底7月初。届时风险事件或阶段性缓解,估值进一步回归,A股或具备一定的参与条件。

                                                                                                                                                                          行业(个股)配置上,市场将由普涨到分化,降低高β行业的配置,相应的增加α权重。两国贸易磋商冲突再起,受外需影响较大的行业,其盈利整体受到冲击,相应的内需特别是“必需消费品”行业受到冲击的影响相对较小,且从一季报行业比较来看,消费板块的业绩是为数不多的业绩超预期的板块。当前,我们仍维持对“消费”板块的配置,对弱周期且有政策红利的“新能源(光伏)”板块亦给予推荐评级。